关于玻利瓦尔下赛季欧冠前景看好，球队成员齐心协力的信息

　　编者语：

　　欧元区的经济增速与劳动力市场正在逐步的提高与完善，相比之下，生产率增速的持续低迷让人忧心忡忡，本文认为有两个潜在因素影响着生产率的增长：1.开云电子登录每个工人的所有资本；2.资源使用效率。并提出只有进行结构性改革，改善资本和劳动力的分配不当，才能提高经济凝聚力，增强货币联盟稳定性。敬请阅读。

　　文/Mario Draghi (欧洲中央银行行长)；编译（节选）/王昌耀

　　这段时间以来，欧元区经济正以一种温和且稳定的速度持续扩张，劳动力市场也在逐步改善。这种逐渐上升的趋势预计将持续下去，而不仅仅是我们货币政策下的特定现象。但令人心痛的是生产率增速却持续低迷。1995年，欧元区生产率增速与世界其他开云手机在线登陆国家基本持平，在2%左右。但是现在却低于0.5%，生产率增速落后于美国以及其它发达经济体和新兴市场。如果这种状况持续下去，将大大影响欧洲未来的繁荣，并将直接扰乱货币政策和财政政策的选择与欧元区的凝聚力。

　　我认为，有两个潜在因素影响着劳动生产率的增长。第一，每个工人的所有资本量，在许多发达国家，提高投资是化解生产力挑战的关键部分。第二，资源使用效率，主要包括诸如技术创新与组织改进等等。在这两方面，欧元区的表现尤为薄弱。造成这一困局有许多的原因，但本质上它们都与技术的创新与采用和资源配置效率有关。

　　一些人觉得与过往的几十年相比，当前的边际创新能力下降明显。他们认为19世纪见证了诸如铁路和电力等颠覆性发明的诞生，而现在我们的创新就是做一个APP而不是通过打电话来预约出租车。从某种程度上来说这种论调有一定的道理，但事实并非如此。

　　如果全要素生产率增长下降是由于在前沿技术缓慢发展，你开云在线登录会发现处于技术前沿的企业生产率增长普遍偏，然而事实刚好相反。从2003年到2013年，全球前沿制造业公司的生产力，即全球100强公司的生产力——增加了四分之一。生产率增速在全球前沿服务业公司甚至更高。更为重要的是，欧元区技术前沿企业的表现与其它发达经济体保持一致。

　　非前沿公司的生产率下滑才是解释发达经济体总生产率增速缓慢的重要原因。非前沿制造业公司生产率仅增加了10%，欧元区的非前沿公司情况更为糟糕——非前沿制造业公司生产率处于停滞，非前沿服务业公司生产率持续下滑。

　　但劳动生产率增长不仅取决于经济体中每个公司的效率提升，它也取决于资本和劳动力在多大程度上被分配给最具生产力的公司。然而现在，已经有迹象表明欧元区的资本和劳动力分配分配不均，尤其是在非贸易部门，这种现象最为明显。并且最近的研究表明，这种资本和劳动力分配不当的现象在许多欧元区国家呈上升趋势。

　　总之，欧元区低下的生产率是技术由前沿公司向其他公司错误扩散的结果，是资本与劳动力低效率分配的结果。幸运的是，相比技术的难以替代，结构性改革更容易为人接受。主要有两个领域的问题需要解决。

　　第一，知识传播壁垒急需破除。这需要我们培育竞争性的商业环境以及鼓励采用最好的管理技术和组织结构。我们们要在公司间树立一个标杆，有着最棒的知识传播与实践操作，让大家纷纷效仿。

　　第二，吸引资本和技术工人，企业生产率才能提高。这需要运转良好的资本、产品和劳动力市场。完备的“统一市场”是至关重要的，尤其是在服务业部门，分配不均现象显著。抑制小企业提高员工人数这一监管阻碍需要放松，有证据表明，生产企业宁可选择不成长都不愿承受扩张所带来的巨额行政费用。最近在意大利和西班牙的改革都试图解决这一问题。

　　改善分配还需要一个运行良好的金融系统，能实时对企业提供资金支持。需要完善的制度和司法框架，比如破产法和银行执行担保安排的能力，也需要确保资本不是被困生产力低下的公司。西班牙的种种操作降低了银行业危机的遗留影响从而使新增信贷流向持续盈利和不断增长的公司。是一个很好的正面范例。

　　欧元区在未来几十年面临着重大的人口挑战。扭转生产率的下降趋势，提高劳动力市场产出都是为了迎接这一挑战。如果不齐心协力进行结构性改革，欧元区的人均收入增长将可能停滞不前，甚至出现下降。

　　结构性改革的福利不仅仅只是保护人均收入。更低的失业率与更高的市场参与度都将带来积极的影响。潜在产出的增加给了货币政策与财政政策更多的操作空间。通过打破壁垒，结构性改革使“统一市场”获得了大量好处，提高了经济凝聚力，增强了货币联盟稳定性。

　　原文：

The productivity challenge for Europe

　　The euro area economy continues to expand at a moderate, but steady, pace and labour markets are gradually improving, including notably here in Spain. This gradual upward trend is expected to continue, not least owing to our monetary policy measures. But productivity growth has remained very subdued. In 1995,productivity growth in the euro area was on a par with the rest of the world at about 2%. But now, at below 0.5%, it lags behind the growth rates of the United States, other advanced economies and emerging markets.If it persists, this slowdown in productivity growth will matter greatly for our future prosperity, and will have direct consequences for the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy and the cohesion of the euro area.

　　There are two underlying sources of labour productivity growth. The first is the amount of capital available to each worker. Raising investment is therefore a key part of tackling the productivity challenge in many advanced economies. The second relates to how efficiently resources are used, and includes such things as innovation and organisational improvements. This is total factor productivity.

　　It is in this area that the euro area performance has been particularly weak. There are many reasons put forward for this weakness, but in essence they relate to the role of innovation, technology adoption and efficient reallocation of resources.

　　Some argue that innovations now are on a smaller scale than in previous decades and centuries.The argument goes that the 19th century witnessed the diffusion of transformative inventions such as the railway and electricity; whereas nowadays our innovations are things such as an app to order a taxi, rather than phoning. To an extent this may be true, but the facts seem to say otherwise.

　　If falling total factor productivity growth were caused by slowing progress at the technological frontier, you would expect productivity growth of firms at that frontier to be correspondingly poor. The opposite appears true. From 2003 to 2013, productivity at global frontier manufacturing firms – i.e. the top 100 firms globally in each sector in terms of productivity – increased by a quarter. Productivity growth at global frontier service sector firms was even higher. And, importantly, the performance of euro area firms at the frontier is on a par with that of other advanced economies.

　　It is productivity growth among the non-frontier firms that is poor across the OECD countries, explaining the slowdown in aggregate productivity growth across advanced economies. Productivity in non-frontier manufacturing firms increased by just 10%. And, for the euro area, the picture for non-frontier firms appears even worse, with non-frontier productivity stagnating in manufacturing and even declining in services.

　　But labour productivity growth not only depends on the efficiency gains of each firm in the economy. It also depends on the extent to which capital and labour are allocated to the most productive firms. Here, again, there are signs of underperformance in the euro area, particularly in the non-tradable sectors. Recent research suggests that this misallocation of capital and labour is trending upwards in many euro area countries.

　　In conclusion, therefore, the euro area’s poor productivity appears a result of poor diffusion of technology from the frontier to other firms, and from an inefficient allocation of capital and labour to relatively low productivity firms. Such factors are fortunately more receptive to structural reforms than innovation, which is harder to institute. There are two main areas that need to be addressed.

　　First, barriers to knowledge diffusion need to be brought down. This includes fostering a competitive business environment that encourages the adoption of the best management techniques and organisational structures. Here, there is a clear role for institutions such as the one whose centenary we are celebrating today to aid this diffusion of knowledge and best practice across firms.

　　Second, productive firms need to be able to grow, to attract both capital and skilled workers. This requires well-functioning capital, product and labour markets. It is crucial that the Single Market is completed, particularly in the services sector where misallocation is largest. Regulatory barriers that inhibit small firms from gaining headcount need to be relaxed – there is evidence that productive firms choose not to grow rather than cross the threshold and incur greater administrative expenses. Recent reforms in Italy and Spain have sought to address this problem.

　　Improving allocation also requires a well-functioning financial system that can direct funds to dynamic firms. Adequate institutional and judicial frameworks, such as bankruptcy laws and the ability of banks to enforce collateral arrangements, are also needed to ensure capital is not trapped in unproductive or failed firms. The steps taken here in Spain to reduce the legacy effects of the banking crisis will help invigorate the flow of new credit towards profitable and growing firms.

　　The euro area faces a significant demographic challenge in the coming decades. Reversing the decline in productivity growth and improving labour market outcomes are both required to meet this challenge. Without concerted effort on structural reforms, per capita income growth in the euro area is likely to stagnate, and may even decline.

　　The welfare benefits of structural reforms extend beyond just protecting income per capita. The distributional impacts of lower unemployment and higher participation are positive. Increasing potential output growth provides both monetary and fiscal policy more space to operate in. By breaking down barriers, reforms allow the full benefits of the Single Market to be realised, increasing economic cohesion and strengthening the monetary union.（完）

　　文章来源：欧洲中央银行官网2016年11月30日（本文仅代表作者观点）

　　本篇编辑：王昌耀

　　【纽伦港新动态】专栏往期回顾：

　　第347期：全球化思考 本土化行动

　　第348期：特朗普胜出带来三大变化

　　第349期：全球性事件对欧元的冲击：特朗普当选、英国脱欧，欧元最受伤

　　第350期：信息科技领域投资加速向前

　　第351期：IMF：机器人、增长与不平等

　　第352期：美国经济面临的长期挑战

　　第353期：被危机惊醒的世界：五次重大金融危机造就了现代金融

　　第354期：杜德利：消费者期望调查（SCE）及其作用简介

　　第355期：美元快速升值开启潘多拉盒子

　　第356期：未来银行业思考——欧洲系列之营业网点篇

　　第357期：分布式账本技术对欧洲中央银行的意义第358期：杜德利：美国金融监管体系的重要进展和变化

　　第359期：美国政府债台高筑给世界带来什么

　　第360期：金融科技的机遇与挑战

　　第361期：李小加：常怀希望与梦想

　　查找公众号bashusongonfinance或扫描下方二维码关注本平台，查看往期文章。

　　温馨提示：现微信最新版本“订阅号”已实现公众号置顶功能，广大读者可点开“金融读书会”公众号，点“置顶公众号”键，即可将“金融读书会”置顶，方便阅读。